China and Taiwan’s upcoming elections in 2024

China’s Expanding Assertiveness

China’s assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region has witnessed substantial growth in recent times. This assertiveness encompasses military drills conducted in proximity to Taiwan, diplomatic endeavors to isolate Taiwan, and a persistent campaign aimed at diminishing Taiwan’s global presence.

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Beijing continues to strongly uphold its One China policy, considering Taiwan an inseparable part of China, and it has not dismissed the possibility of using military force to achieve reunification.

Military Maneuvers and Intimidation

A clear and unmistakable display of China’s assertive stance is its frequent military actions near Taiwan. Chinese fighter jets consistently enter Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), and naval patrols in the Taiwan Strait have become a regular occurrence. These actions are often interpreted as acts of intimidation, designed to assess Taiwan’s response capabilities and erode its defenses.

Diplomatic Isolation

China has also actively pursued the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan. It exerts pressure on countries and international bodies to refrain from officially recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state. This diplomatic isolation can curtail Taiwan’s participation in international forums, hampering its engagement with the global community.

Economic and Cyber Warfare

China’s influence extends to economic and cyber warfare tactics. Economic coercion, including discouraging international firms from conducting business with Taiwan, carries significant economic ramifications. Additionally, cyberattacks originating from China pose an ongoing threat to Taiwan’s critical infrastructure and information systems.

Impact on Taiwan’s 2024 Elections

As Taiwan readies itself for the 2024 elections, China’s burgeoning assertiveness could yield several potential consequences:

National Security Concerns: Heightened military activities in Taiwan’s vicinity may instill concerns among voters regarding national security. Candidates advocating for robust defense policies could garner greater support.

Identity and Independence: China’s assertiveness might influence how the electorate perceives Taiwanese identity and independence. Pro-independence candidates could witness increased popularity in response to perceived threats to Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Diplomatic Relations: Candidates equipped with clear strategies for navigating Taiwan’s diplomatic relations amidst Chinese pressure may resonate with voters concerned about international isolation.

Economic Resilience: Candidates capable of presenting robust plans for economic resilience in the face of potential economic coercion from China may find favor with voters.

Cybersecurity: Addressing cybersecurity concerns and safeguarding critical infrastructure may emerge as pivotal electoral issues.